These recycled conversations are tiresome. I think it’s an absolute shame that we are still dealing with energy access issues in 2025. More babies/mothers die of energy access each year than during the COVID pandemic. Given the remarkable success in Pakistan it is clear the transition can lift all boats in all societies. Unfortunately despite Todd’s push for more diesel and fossil fuels hand outs, the world has more people without reliable electricity today then when Todd started making these arguments in 2010. Energy access is a solvable problem and we really need to aim higher. Technology is ready and cheap, now we need to figure out what is stifling commerce.
Over 90% of countries in Africa are ruled by dictatorships of one form or another. The World Bank, IMF and UN have mandated "green" energy as a condition of billions of dollars of loans to these countries, for decades. By "green" I mean solar and wind. I am not certain what funds are set for these governments to build green facilities but know that virtually every power grid is useless and needs tens of billions to repair or replace, plus the planning and skilled workforce that is virtually impossible in Africa. This is the fundamental reason, that even China with its +20yr "Belt and Road" initiative, has failed to electrify one African country.
They could fuel their economy on Methanol for heat, transportation and distributed micro-grids. Methanol can be made in massive quantities from any carbonaceous material: coal, biomass, waste, natural gas (including stranded assets). Can be produced from coal or gas for 13cents/liter. Can be made in tractor-trailer sized mobile plants from biomass. Burns more efficiently and much cleaner than any other liquid fuels. As clean as natural gas. But is easy to store and transport. Spills are benign.
But the PTB, the Energy Hegemonists blockade Methanol as a fuel, they just don't want the competition. Just as they blockade Nuclear Power.
Fully agree - we should stop thinking lifeline and think productive levels.
You show a split - residential (maybe 1/4 over time) and other uses - but for residential you use per capita. Wouldn't per household be better? A TV, Fridge, etc are often more per home, at least to start? Large household sizes (5+ people) would mean per HH consumption would be 1250 kWh/year, which is above India's average household consumption today. EVENTUALLY, for sure, but we can have huge human and productive impacts well below this level (a level that includes urban/elite of India)
These recycled conversations are tiresome. I think it’s an absolute shame that we are still dealing with energy access issues in 2025. More babies/mothers die of energy access each year than during the COVID pandemic. Given the remarkable success in Pakistan it is clear the transition can lift all boats in all societies. Unfortunately despite Todd’s push for more diesel and fossil fuels hand outs, the world has more people without reliable electricity today then when Todd started making these arguments in 2010. Energy access is a solvable problem and we really need to aim higher. Technology is ready and cheap, now we need to figure out what is stifling commerce.
Over 90% of countries in Africa are ruled by dictatorships of one form or another. The World Bank, IMF and UN have mandated "green" energy as a condition of billions of dollars of loans to these countries, for decades. By "green" I mean solar and wind. I am not certain what funds are set for these governments to build green facilities but know that virtually every power grid is useless and needs tens of billions to repair or replace, plus the planning and skilled workforce that is virtually impossible in Africa. This is the fundamental reason, that even China with its +20yr "Belt and Road" initiative, has failed to electrify one African country.
They could fuel their economy on Methanol for heat, transportation and distributed micro-grids. Methanol can be made in massive quantities from any carbonaceous material: coal, biomass, waste, natural gas (including stranded assets). Can be produced from coal or gas for 13cents/liter. Can be made in tractor-trailer sized mobile plants from biomass. Burns more efficiently and much cleaner than any other liquid fuels. As clean as natural gas. But is easy to store and transport. Spills are benign.
But the PTB, the Energy Hegemonists blockade Methanol as a fuel, they just don't want the competition. Just as they blockade Nuclear Power.
Fully agree - we should stop thinking lifeline and think productive levels.
You show a split - residential (maybe 1/4 over time) and other uses - but for residential you use per capita. Wouldn't per household be better? A TV, Fridge, etc are often more per home, at least to start? Large household sizes (5+ people) would mean per HH consumption would be 1250 kWh/year, which is above India's average household consumption today. EVENTUALLY, for sure, but we can have huge human and productive impacts well below this level (a level that includes urban/elite of India)