Does clean energy ambition give a leader a pass on his past?
What to make of the climate ambitions of Kenya’s President Ruto
Kenya’s President William Ruto arrives in DC this week for an exercise in diplomatic cognitive dissonance. A State Visit is a big deal; this is the first by an African leader since Ghana’s John Kufuor way back in 2008.
What does the US want?
Friends at CSIS have a helpful roundup of the strategic objectives, but one thing from their analysis especially struck me: In 2023, President Biden made just one phone call to an African head of state, Kenya’s Ruto to discuss Haiti, where the US wants Kenyan police to help. Yep, just one and it was about a US security issue. That anecdote speaks to the narrow realpolitik nature of this US administration – and their instrumental view of the US-Kenya-relationship.
Same goes for Kenya
We should also expect President Ruto to have his own self-serving agenda: to attract new investment to his country and to cement his ambition as Africa’s climate champion. He already hosted the Africa Climate Summit and has promised to make Kenya’s power sector net zero emissions by 2030. He has big plans for Kenya to play a role in just about every climate trend: green hydrogen, carbon credits, geothermal power, large-scale wind, storage, you name it, and Ruto wants it.
Note: Judd Devermont, until recently President Biden’s top Africa advisor, provides a brilliant explanation of how the CIA profiles leaders and assesses what visitors really want. He even has a section on what AI says about Ruto’s intentions this week.
My colleagues Rose Mutiso and Katie Auth lay out what to expect on climate and energy from the Ruto-Biden summit in a terrific short snappy analysis. One of their themes stood out for me:
Ruto will push his grand vision for African climate leadership…but the biggest thing being cleaned up by Ruto’s climate policy might be his own reputation.
The ghosts of 2008
Like everyone, my views are shaded by my own experiences. I was fortunate to serve as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs under Secretary Condoleezza Rice and Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer. My main responsibilities were West Africa relations and economic policy, so Kenya was not a personal focus, but the country loomed large for the bureau. I loved the job and learned so much. But one of the worst periods was December 2007-January 2008 when sectarian violence exploded in Kenya after contested elections. Over 1,000 people were killed and half a million forced from their homes. This was not a spontaneous outbreak, but rather something coordinated by nefarious actors and stoked by political hate speech. The African Union dispatched Ghana’s Kufuor to mediate an end to the crisis.
Blame fell on many shoulders. Yet the International Criminal Court at the Hague alleged that specific top Kenyan politicians had committed crimes against humanity, including murder and forcible transfer of population. Among those charged was an MP from Eldoret North, an epicenter of the violence in the western part of the country. His name: William Ruto. The case was terminated in 2016. I have no special insights into ICC machinations or their decision to end the case, but the allegations were pretty brutal – and now seem to have been largely forgotten.
Blindness is a choice
The US should absolutely build a stronger partnership with Kenya as our two countries share many mutual interests. Rose & Katie even suggest a formal bilateral structure to accelerate clean energy investment, assuming the US can deliver more than repackaged old commitments. Great idea. And, of course, it’s not lost on anyone that the US works with countries and leaders with all sorts of baggage.
At the same time, there’s something deeply unsettling about the contrast between the macabre horrors of 2008 and the cheery grandstanding of 2024. Let’s encourage allies to accelerate the clean energy transition. Let’s support partners who want to help take risks and lead the way to a better future. But let’s not be blind to the fact that politicians may be nakedly using climate to wash far more than the environment.
Like all foreign investment/aid, especially in Africa, the leaders take a sizable cut. Ruto isn’t interested in carbon free energy, he’s interested in any US investment where he can skim 30-50% for himself. No different than the US politicians, business and banking interests who are fleecing American taxpayers and rate payers for so-called “clean” intermittant wind and solar energy. Wind and solar cannot power a developing country like Kenya. They cannot afford wind and solar because it requires a backup system (Nat gas) for power when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine. Only rich countries can afford a mix of wind and solar and even there, you are limited if you want 24/7 reliable and affordable power.
great point! I had forgotten that Ruto was implicated in that. I guess he did manage to pull the wool over our eyes.